Aggregating expert intervals

Notes

Estimating intervals after expert elicitation

<2016-06-29 Wed 11:17>

  • A simple clipped average is seen to be perform well (Lyon, Wintle and Burgman, 2015)
  • But what about some other way of aggregation?
  • What about minimising difference from implied distributions to the target
    • e.g. by Kullback-Leibler divergence